The political stalemate in Somalia is likely to continue despite the state of Hirshabelle announcing that it will cooperate with the central government. Puntland, Galmudug, Southwest State and Jubbaland remain defiant. The President of Hirshabelle, Mohamed Abdi Ware, announced the move, which analysts say was forced, because, apart from the push for a no-confidence motion against him, he is not in control of the state.
However, experts say the litmus test will come in November when the Southwest State, led by Sharif Hassan Sheikh Aden, goes to the elections. The outcome will determine whether the remaining four federal states will maintain their non-cooperation stance with the centre as per their September 8 resolution or cave in. “The four regions have now developed a wait-and-see approach. If Mr Aden wins, then it is likely to undermine the authority of the centre, but if he loses, it is likely to jolt them into co-operation because they could face the same fate,” said Abdilatif Maalim, a strategic communication specialist based in Mogadishu.
Abdiweli Mohamed Ali Gaas (Puntland), Ahmed Duale Gelle (Galmudug) and Sheikh Ahmed Madobe of Jubaland are waiting to see if President Abdullahi Mohamed “Farmajo” deploys his machinery to ensure that they are not re-elected. The Southwest State elections are a major test because President Farmajo will be trying to oust a veteran politician and a powerful former speaker of the National Assembly.
Mr Aden influenced the ousting of the immediate former president Abdullahi Yusuf Ahmed and was also a major opponent of former president Sheikh Shariff Ahmed. Mr Aden joined politics in 2004 when he was elected Speaker of parliament at a reconciliation conference held in Nairobi. He held the post until 2007. After the Hirshabelle elections next month, Puntland will follow in January 2019, then Jubbaland and Galmudug.
