The battle famously depicted in the movie ‘Black Hawk Down’ (based on Mark Bowden’s book) took place 25 years ago (October 1993) and the U.S. remains engaged in a conflict in Somalia now—in 2018—and likely for the foreseeable future. The warlords remain, to a lesser degree, and the government is still unable to provide consistent services and security. Al-Qaeda has long been a meaningful player in Somalia, from the earliest days of the group, and is now representedthere through its affiliate al-Shabab. Al-Shabab, or “the Youth,” has proven to be a well-entrenched insurgent organization capable of launching spectacular terrorist attacks while withstanding a steady campaign of U.S. and African Union-supported military operations over the past decade.
The counterterrorism campaign in Somalia is among the most intractable and difficult of the many theatres where the U.S. military has remained active in the post-9/11 era. On December 17, the U.S. Defense Department (DoD) announced that the military conducted 6 airstrikes in Somalia. The U.S. reported that 62 al-Shabab fighters, and no civilians, were killed in the strikes. The strikes brought the total number of publicly reported U.S. airstrikes in Somalia to 45; this is 14 more than what had been the previous record number of strikes in a year, 31 in 2017.
The operational tempo has increased dramatically since the Trump administration revised rules of engagement (ROE) toward a more ‘preemptive’ posture. The December 17 announcement noted that the six strikes were intended to ‘prevent al-Shabab from using remote areas as a safe haven to plot, direct, inspire, and recruit for future attacks.’ There is growing concern that Somalia could provide al-Shabab, as well as other terrorists, including some linked to the so-called Islamic State, with a sanctuary to plan attacks.
Just last week, a Somali national was apprehended by Italian counter-terrorism police in southern Italy and arrested on terrorism-related charges. The individual has been linked to the IS affiliate in Somalia, and was apparently in touch with an operational cell. Although details are still emerging, the suspect had downloaded several images of the Vatican. The conflict in Somalia has mostly remained within that country’s borders, with a few exceptions (including attacks in Kenya and Uganda), but that could be changing as groups seek to plot external operations aimed at the West from Somali soil.
The strikes targeted al-Shabab fighters in the south of the country, where the group has retained its capability to conduct devastating terror attacks as well as serve as the de facto government in rural areas outside the control of the government, which is mostly relegated to Mogadishu, Somalia’s capital. While the scale of the conflict is far less than what the U.S. is grappling with in Afghanistan, the underlying realities are similar.
